Japan's Trying Hard to Catch U.S. in Software : Programming: The U.S. has 70% of the world market. Some say this proves that the Japanese aren't creative, but Americans in the industry are nervous.
JAPAN'S NEXT BIG STEP. Creativity, Invention and Innovation. One in a series.
TOKYO
— In February, Nikkei Computer magazine rendered its verdict on one of
the largest software development projects attempted in Japan, an
automation project known as SIGMA.
"The Failure of a National Project that Took Five Years and 25 Billion Yen," the headline blared.
Software specialists have come to a similar conclusion about the Fifth Generation Project, the multimillion-dollar endeavor that was supposed to propel Japaninto world leadership in artificial intelligence.
"The stated goal was to leapfrog generations, and from that point of view, it was a flop," said Edmond Schonberg, a New York University professor who surveyed Japan's software development for the U.S. Commerce Department in 1986.
In a seemingly relentless march toward technological supremacy, Japan has dazzled the world with printers and copiers, autos and VCRs, stereos, semiconductors and supercomputers. But despite project after project, millions of investment dollars and national prestige being on the line, the Japanese are struggling with what many regard as the future's key technological frontier: software.
"The Failure of a National Project that Took Five Years and 25 Billion Yen," the headline blared.
Software specialists have come to a similar conclusion about the Fifth Generation Project, the multimillion-dollar endeavor that was supposed to propel Japaninto world leadership in artificial intelligence.
"The stated goal was to leapfrog generations, and from that point of view, it was a flop," said Edmond Schonberg, a New York University professor who surveyed Japan's software development for the U.S. Commerce Department in 1986.
In a seemingly relentless march toward technological supremacy, Japan has dazzled the world with printers and copiers, autos and VCRs, stereos, semiconductors and supercomputers. But despite project after project, millions of investment dollars and national prestige being on the line, the Japanese are struggling with what many regard as the future's key technological frontier: software.
"I
believe the one who can control the software can control business,"
said Katsuhide Hirai, director of Fujitsu America Inc.'s information
systems division.
Yet it is Japanese stereos that the world demands, not their records; their VCRs, not their movies. In the same way, software specialists say, the Japanese have been far stronger in selling their business machines than the written instructions that tell them how to process words, calculate equations, analyze molecules, draw a three-dimensional architectural design.
In this arena, Made in America still dominates. U.S. software producers hold about 70% of the $70-billion world market, which is projected to explode to $1 trillion by the year 2000. To some analysts, the consistent inability of the Japanese to crack that market is proof that they lack the creativity and imagination critical to a process many liken to art.
"You can't pick it up and imitate it so easily. You can't carve it, measure it; you can't even see it. You need more creativity, and we may have the edge there for a long time," said Doug Jerger of ADAPSO, a software industry group.
"Software is pure mind stuff, more similar to poetry than anything else," said Joe Garber, principal at A. T. Kearney Technology in Redwood City, Calif. "And people with artistic natures do tend to behave a little differently.
"We tend to be very tolerant of strange people with long hair and bad eating habits who produce things of genius. And the Japanese don't quite understand that. The Japanese salaryman (office-worker) syndrome is not one that fosters artistic, aesthetically oriented creativity," Garber added.
Sound like the smug complacency that undermined U.S. leads in autos, steel, semiconductors? It isn't. Jerger and Garber, like nearly every American who discussed the issue, are not taking U.S. dominance for granted.
They recognize that the Japanese are not pursuing creative software with the same vigor that they are directing at breakthroughs in biotechnology, say, or new materials. They understand that the Japanese, pressed by a shortage of software engineers and buried by a backlog of orders, are pouring most of their energy into solid, reliable--but relatively unimaginative--projects, such as productivity tools and basic industrial systems.
Still, even as they rate Japan up to five years behind in most software areas, U.S. analysts throw in several big, cautionary buts :
* But the Japanese government has made software development a top priority. The Ministry of International Trade and Industry has promoted public-private programs and arranged tax incentives and software-engineer training programs.
Yet it is Japanese stereos that the world demands, not their records; their VCRs, not their movies. In the same way, software specialists say, the Japanese have been far stronger in selling their business machines than the written instructions that tell them how to process words, calculate equations, analyze molecules, draw a three-dimensional architectural design.
In this arena, Made in America still dominates. U.S. software producers hold about 70% of the $70-billion world market, which is projected to explode to $1 trillion by the year 2000. To some analysts, the consistent inability of the Japanese to crack that market is proof that they lack the creativity and imagination critical to a process many liken to art.
"You can't pick it up and imitate it so easily. You can't carve it, measure it; you can't even see it. You need more creativity, and we may have the edge there for a long time," said Doug Jerger of ADAPSO, a software industry group.
"Software is pure mind stuff, more similar to poetry than anything else," said Joe Garber, principal at A. T. Kearney Technology in Redwood City, Calif. "And people with artistic natures do tend to behave a little differently.
"We tend to be very tolerant of strange people with long hair and bad eating habits who produce things of genius. And the Japanese don't quite understand that. The Japanese salaryman (office-worker) syndrome is not one that fosters artistic, aesthetically oriented creativity," Garber added.
Sound like the smug complacency that undermined U.S. leads in autos, steel, semiconductors? It isn't. Jerger and Garber, like nearly every American who discussed the issue, are not taking U.S. dominance for granted.
They recognize that the Japanese are not pursuing creative software with the same vigor that they are directing at breakthroughs in biotechnology, say, or new materials. They understand that the Japanese, pressed by a shortage of software engineers and buried by a backlog of orders, are pouring most of their energy into solid, reliable--but relatively unimaginative--projects, such as productivity tools and basic industrial systems.
Still, even as they rate Japan up to five years behind in most software areas, U.S. analysts throw in several big, cautionary buts :
* But the Japanese government has made software development a top priority. The Ministry of International Trade and Industry has promoted public-private programs and arranged tax incentives and software-engineer training programs.
*
But major Japanese firms are pouring millions of dollars into the
field. For instance, the 150% boost since 1981 in Hitachi Ltd.'s annual
research spending of $2.7 billion has been driven by software spending
in both basic industrial systems and such exotic-sounding fields as fuzzy logic. That form of software programs machines to think flexibly, like a human.
"Usually Hitachi focuses on manufacturing hardware," said chief engineer Sumihisa Kotani. "But as many people say, how to combine these components to build an integrated system is very, very important. Top managers have decided that software is the key."
* But the Japanese have proven their talent by building superior software systems that few Americans ever see: for banking operations, steel manufacturing controls, automobile plants. For instance, the auto industry's processes of quality control and flexible manufacturing are largely driven by skillful software engineering. "That is the reason why Japanese auto manufacturers are beating America," said Kouichi Kishida, technical director of Japan's Software Research Assn. "The main weapon is the computer system."
http://stats.ioinformatics.org/results/2014
"Usually Hitachi focuses on manufacturing hardware," said chief engineer Sumihisa Kotani. "But as many people say, how to combine these components to build an integrated system is very, very important. Top managers have decided that software is the key."
* But the Japanese have proven their talent by building superior software systems that few Americans ever see: for banking operations, steel manufacturing controls, automobile plants. For instance, the auto industry's processes of quality control and flexible manufacturing are largely driven by skillful software engineering. "That is the reason why Japanese auto manufacturers are beating America," said Kouichi Kishida, technical director of Japan's Software Research Assn. "The main weapon is the computer system."
http://stats.ioinformatics.org/results/2014
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